Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 98275.263414 103577.151774 108873.784258 114558.684815 120483.991150 126474.214503 132984.179313
2025-08-31 88747.096840 96801.456329 105069.074680 114179.253741 123925.259464 134028.015294 145281.329425
2025-09-07 83190.910752 93225.398775 103746.501084 115578.361914 128491.173151 142133.481172 157613.510315
2025-09-14 78665.587225 90181.795374 102473.119624 116531.686125 132129.096978 148865.723686 168144.496671
2025-09-21 74438.497117 87072.859480 100770.904869 116672.556469 134569.128769 154032.502886 176743.522255
2025-09-28 70859.086826 84411.988502 99315.430781 116847.956258 136833.228672 158828.247621 184786.892663
2025-10-05 68774.514537 83276.644661 99426.481545 118650.533180 140811.715515 165457.238389 194834.212212
2025-10-12 66757.727973 82078.740004 99342.664416 120118.987428 144319.634014 171492.663568 204178.107635
2025-10-19 64557.859377 80541.521090 98755.509969 120903.929706 146957.061978 176475.118082 212284.809790
2025-10-26 62212.049150 78717.336141 97730.275248 121081.500271 148807.818520 180492.060156 219240.751343
2025-11-02 60229.463871 77235.553716 97026.949386 121563.305946 150953.822158 184810.037823 226527.020205
2025-11-09 58144.116054 75542.029723 95992.273758 121577.076860 152484.551643 188363.815509 232893.062276
2025-11-16 56837.440816 74769.741694 96048.855767 122900.904400 155599.889121 193834.975377 241609.271741
2025-11-23 54876.067211 73118.875618 94977.697741 122804.787947 156967.954903 197209.564508 247834.864479
2025-11-30 53868.758020 72616.531548 95279.210197 124359.736663 160324.289876 202967.969444 256943.395149
2025-12-07 52671.060042 71825.172565 95181.618643 125387.840992 163014.260559 207917.206239 265091.656036
2025-12-14 51126.907196 70537.509338 94415.818275 125541.037493 164592.857763 211498.386246 271578.251305
2025-12-21 49684.453263 69331.749234 93708.994337 125728.087319 166182.436572 215075.441622 278059.248938
2025-12-28 49109.837278 69228.144900 94380.490711 127641.938547 169925.533906 221309.909958 287835.766723
2026-01-04 48410.590972 68933.011669 94784.880116 129200.699644 173218.083700 226998.006965 296968.428918
2026-01-11 47430.520832 68233.417971 94640.265324 130033.816569 175580.035173 231530.367806 304685.228630
2026-01-18 46221.037622 67191.011558 94018.059034 130222.277171 177100.956140 235003.398922 311087.517570
2026-01-25 45201.889201 66373.799367 93662.860753 130733.610424 179019.239707 238970.873924 318120.809551